In a notable shift from his usual pessimistic outlook, renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, often referred to as Dr Doom, suggests a more positive perspective for the global economy in 2024.
Roubini, famous for his consistent warnings of economic downturns, acknowledges the uncertainties of past recession forecasts in a recent note for Project Syndicate. Despite highlighting potential pitfalls, he cautiously points to a potential soft landing for the US and other advanced economies this year—a departure from his historically gloomy predictions.
While recognizing a soft landing as the prevailing consensus among economists, Roubini introduces the prospect of a ‘no-landing’ scenario, where growth remains resilient, challenging market expectations for disinflation. However, he warns that such a scenario could lead to an extended period of elevated monetary policy rates, impacting stocks and bonds negatively.
In exploring potential outcomes, Roubini discusses the idea of a “bumpy landing,” involving a brief, shallow recession and a more severe downturn. Although he raises this as a possibility, he expresses skepticism about its likelihood, offering a somewhat reassuring tone for those concerned about a severe economic downturn.
Roubini emphasizes the unpredictable nature of the global economic landscape, asserting that specific landing scenarios depend on individual countries or regions. Surprisingly, he even entertains the notion that China might surpass a 4 percent growth rate in 2024 through moderate stimulus measures. However, he tempers this optimism with caution about a potential bumpy landing for China.
Despite his unexpected positive outlook, Roubini highlights persistent risks that could disrupt the global economic recovery. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the 2025 US presidential election, and potential stagflationary shocks, such as energy price spikes from escalated conflicts, are among the concerns he underscores.